· Analysis updated 11:10 UTC
Strogino vs Rotor-2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Strogino and 0.84 for Rotor-2, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Strogino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Strogino win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strogino home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rotor-2 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strogino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Strogino and 0.84 for Rotor-2, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Strogino
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva III · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 0-2 (L)
Rotor-2
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avangard Kursk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna Nizhegorodskaya · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kvant · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Strogino win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.