· Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Strogino vs Torpedo Vladimir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Strogino and 1.37 for Torpedo Vladimir, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Torpedo Vladimir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strogino home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torpedo Vladimir away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torpedo Vladimir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Strogino and 1.37 for Torpedo Vladimir, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Strogino
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva III · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 0-2 (L)
Torpedo Vladimir
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvezda St. Petersburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Znamya Noginsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Strogino · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.