· Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
Strogino vs Zenit Penza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Strogino and 1.28 for Zenit Penza, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Strogino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Strogino home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit Penza away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Strogino
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva III · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Zenit Penza · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tula II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Saturn Ramenskoye · 0-2 (L)
Zenit Penza
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Salyut-Belgorod · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva III · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Metallurg Lipetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · Strogino 3-0 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · Strogino 0-1 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · Strogino 1-2 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2025-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · Strogino 0-1 Zenit Penza (Cup)
- 2025-07-05T15:00:00.000Z · Strogino 3-0 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · Strogino 0-2 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2024-05-26T10:00:00.000Z · Strogino 0-1 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-08-27T13:30:00.000Z · Strogino 1-3 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · Strogino 1-2 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
- 2023-04-15T10:00:00.000Z · Strogino 1-0 Zenit Penza (Second League - Group 3)
Second League - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -42 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.