Stromsgodset vs Sandnes ULF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.30 for Sandnes ULF, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Stromsgodset the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Stromsgodset win

53.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Stromsgodset home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sandnes ULF away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stromsgodset to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Stromsgodset and 1.30 for Sandnes ULF, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Stromsgodset win53%

Draw22%

Sandnes ULF win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–19.6%
1–07.5%
2–07.4%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Stromsgodset

2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asane · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Raufoss · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 4-1 (W)

Sandnes ULF

2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabaek · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Strommen · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moss · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arendal · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · Stromsgodset 4-1 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · Stromsgodset 1-1 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
2022-03-19T19:00:00.000Z · Stromsgodset 4-0 Sandnes ULF (NM Cupen)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stromsgodset	27	18	6	3	43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	18	5	4	39	59
3	Haugesund	27	19	2	6	33	59
4	Stabaek	27	16	4	7	30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	13	6	8	13	45
6	Bryne	27	12	3	12	-1	39
7	hodd	27	11	5	11	-6	38
8	Ranheim	27	10	5	12	1	35
9	Egersund	27	9	7	11	-11	34
10	Strommen	27	9	6	12	-11	33
11	Lyn	27	9	4	14	-16	31
12	Moss	27	8	5	14	-16	29
13	Sandnes ULF	27	7	5	15	-17	26
14	Sogndal	26	6	6	14	-17	24
15	Asane	27	6	5	16	-24	23
16	Raufoss	26	6	2	18	-40	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stromsgodset win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.