· Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Struga vs Maliqi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Struga and 0.99 for Maliqi, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Struga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Struga win
76.1% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Struga home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Maliqi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Struga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Struga and 0.99 for Maliqi, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–08.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Struga
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bashkimi Kumanovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aresimi · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tikveš · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sileks · 1-0 (W)
Maliqi
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 2-6 (L)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomori Berat · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkumbini Peqin · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Struga win, at 76.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.