Strumska Slava vs Slivnishki geroy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Strumska Slava and 1.15 for Slivnishki geroy, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Strumska Slava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Strumska Slava win

58.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.04 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Strumska Slava home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slivnishki geroy away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Strumska Slava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Strumska Slava and 1.15 for Slivnishki geroy, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Strumska Slava win58%

Draw21%

Slivnishki geroy win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.6%
2–08.6%
1–08.4%
3–16.7%

Recent form

Strumska Slava

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oborishte · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bansko · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Minyor Pernik · 2-5 (L)

Slivnishki geroy

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Natsional Sofia · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Etropole · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia III · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	13	9	3	1	21	30
2	Oborishte	12	7	4	1	13	25
3	Bansko	11	8	1	2	9	25
4	Kostinbrod	12	7	0	5	10	21
5	Strumska Slava	11	6	2	3	8	20
6	Septemvri Sofia II	12	6	1	5	1	19
7	Balkan Botevgrad	13	6	1	6	-3	19
8	Slivnishki geroy	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	Slavia Sofia II	12	5	1	6	2	16
10	CSKA Sofia III	12	3	7	2	2	16
11	Botev Ihtiman	11	5	1	5	1	16
12	Septemvri Simitli	12	3	5	4	-4	14
13	Chavdar Etropole	13	4	2	7	-15	14
14	Levski Sofia II	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Belasitsa	13	3	3	7	-6	12
16	Natsional Sofia	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Kyustendil	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Pirin Razlog	13	2	1	10	-22	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Strumska Slava win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.