· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Sturm Graz II vs Beltinci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sturm Graz II and 2.02 for Beltinci, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Beltinci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beltinci win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sturm Graz II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beltinci away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beltinci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 21% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Sturm Graz II and 2.02 for Beltinci, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Sturm Graz II
- 2026-08-30T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Wien II · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Admira Wacker · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 0-4 (L)
Beltinci
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilirija · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dekani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beltinci win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.