· Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Sturm Graz II vs Budapest Honved Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Sturm Graz II and 1.23 for Budapest Honved, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Sturm Graz II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sturm Graz II win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sturm Graz II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Budapest Honved away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sturm Graz II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Sturm Graz II and 1.23 for Budapest Honved, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Sturm Graz II
- 2026-08-30T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Wien II · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Admira Wacker · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 0-4 (L)
Budapest Honved
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Puskas Academy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bajai · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sturm Graz II win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.