Merkur-Arena · Referee Julian Weinberger, Austria · Analysis updated 20:37 UTC
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.73 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Sturm Graz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sturm Graz win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sturm Graz home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Lustenau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sturm Graz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.73 for Austria Lustenau, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–18.7%
Recent form
Sturm Graz
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-1 (W)
Austria Lustenau
- 2026-09-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Lafnitz · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 7 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sturm Graz win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.