Merkur-Arena · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.53 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sturm Graz home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Red Bull Salzburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 35% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.53 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Sturm Graz
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 21 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | WSG Wattens | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | TSV Hartberg | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -15 | 9 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.