· Analysis updated 16:18 UTC
Sturm Graz W vs SK Rapid W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.76 expected goals for Sturm Graz W and 0.74 for SK Rapid W, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Sturm Graz W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sturm Graz W win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
2.76 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SK Rapid W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sturm Graz W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.76 goals for Sturm Graz W and 0.74 for SK Rapid W, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.4%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Sturm Graz W
SK Rapid W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Wien W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Salzburg W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LASK W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauenliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz W | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Austria Wien W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 22 |
| 3 | St. Pölten W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 22 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach W | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Salzburg W | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 6 | LASK W | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | First Vienna W | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | SK Rapid W | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 7 |
| 9 | Südburgenland W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -21 | 5 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sturm Graz W win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.