· Analysis updated 05:23 UTC
Sua Flamingoes vs BDF XI Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sua Flamingoes and 0.65 for BDF XI, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Sua Flamingoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.0% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sua Flamingoes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BDF XI away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.2%
- 1–019.1%
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
Sua Flamingoes
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BDF XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morupule Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
BDF XI
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Orapa United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prisons XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nico United · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T13:30:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 3-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2025-11-08T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 0-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2025-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 4-2 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2024-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 1-0 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2024-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 2-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2023-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 0-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 2-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2023-01-07T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 1-2 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2022-02-19T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 0-0 BDF XI (Premier League)
- 2021-12-22T00:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 1-2 BDF XI (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Galaxy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Centre Chiefs | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.