· Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Sua Flamingoes vs Matebele Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sua Flamingoes and 0.65 for Matebele, a combined total of 1.89. That distribution gives Sua Flamingoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sua Flamingoes win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sua Flamingoes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Matebele away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.8%
- 0–015.2%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–19.8%
Recent form
Sua Flamingoes
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BDF XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morupule Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
Matebele
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Township Rollers · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TAFIC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonota · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enesia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 1-0 Matebele (Premier League)
- 2026-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 2-1 Matebele (Premier League)
- 2026-01-17T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 0-1 Matebele (Premier League)
- 2025-02-01T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 4-1 Matebele (Premier League)
- 2025-01-11T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 2-1 Matebele (Premier League)
- 2024-04-20T13:30:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 2-1 Matebele (Premier League)
- 2023-11-11T14:00:00.000Z · Sua Flamingoes 1-2 Matebele (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Galaxy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Centre Chiefs | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sua Flamingoes win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.