Sua Flamingoes vs Morupule Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sua Flamingoes and 1.15 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Sua Flamingoes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sua Flamingoes home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sua Flamingoes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Sua Flamingoes and 1.15 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Sua Flamingoes win43%

Draw26%

Morupule Wanderers win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–010.9%
0–19.0%
2–18.8%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Sua Flamingoes

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BDF XI · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enesia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morupule Wanderers · 0-0 (D)

Morupule Wanderers

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaborone United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Township Rollers · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gaborone United	5	5	0	0	8	15
2	Tonota	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	3	2	1	2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Orapa United	7	2	3	2	1	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	2	3	1	-1	9
7	TAFIC	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Police XI	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Nico United	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	1	2	2	0	5
12	Enesia	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Matebele	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	BDF XI	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	0	3	2	-4	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.