· Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
Subiza vs Valle Egüés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Subiza and 2.50 for Valle Egüés, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Valle Egüés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Valle Egüés win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Subiza home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Valle Egüés away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valle Egüés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 32% / 19% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Subiza and 2.50 for Valle Egüés, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–35.8%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Subiza
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cirbonero · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Valle Egüés · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gazte Berriak · 2-3 (L)
Valle Egüés
- 2026-10-17T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Doneztebe FT · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Aoiz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cantolagua · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutilvera · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Avance Ezcabarte | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | San Juan | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Aoiz | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Beti Onak | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Pamplona | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Txantrea | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Huarte | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Valle Egüés win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.