Football Federation Training Ground · Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
SUBT vs Inter Willemstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for SUBT and 1.75 for Inter Willemstad, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Inter Willemstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Willemstad win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Willemstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for SUBT and 1.75 for Inter Willemstad, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 48% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
SUBT
Inter Willemstad
- 2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs St. John's · 5-2 (W)
- 2024-02-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Centro Barber · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-01-21T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Jong Holland · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-01-14T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Victory Boys · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Curaçao Sekshon Pagá table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jong Colombia | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Scherpenheuvel | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Centro Dominguito | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Inter Willemstad | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Jong Holland | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Victory Boys | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | SUBT | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 16 |
| 8 | UNDEBA | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlétiko Saliña | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 8 |
| 10 | Centro Barber | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Willemstad win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.