· Analysis updated 06:14 UTC
Suchitepéquez vs Guastatoya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Suchitepéquez and 1.43 for Guastatoya, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Guastatoya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Suchitepéquez home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guastatoya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guastatoya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Suchitepéquez and 1.43 for Guastatoya, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Suchitepéquez
- 2026-10-19T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Marquense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mixco · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-05T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal · 0-3 (L)
Guastatoya
- 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Antigua GFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Malacateco · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Municipal | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | Xelajú | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Mixco | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Cobán Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | Suchitepéquez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.