Stadio Druso · Referee Niccolo Turrini, Italy · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Sudtirol vs Ascoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.83 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Sudtirol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sudtirol win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sudtirol home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ascoli away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sudtirol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Sudtirol and 0.83 for Ascoli, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Sudtirol
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arezzo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modena · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Catanzaro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 1-1 (D)
Ascoli
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Avellino · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Padova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrarese · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Mantova | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Pisa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Modena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Sudtirol | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Ascoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Avellino | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Benevento | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Arezzo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Hellas Verona | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Cesena | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Carrarese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Empoli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Cremonese | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Vicenza Virtus | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Juve Stabia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sudtirol win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.