Stadio Druso · Referee Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Sudtirol vs Virtus Entella Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.81 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Sudtirol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sudtirol win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sudtirol home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Virtus Entella away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sudtirol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Sudtirol and 0.81 for Virtus Entella, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.1%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Sudtirol
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arezzo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modena · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Catanzaro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benevento · 1-1 (D)
Virtus Entella
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cremonese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vicenza Virtus · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sudtirol · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sudtirol win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.