Suhareka vs Istogu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Suhareka and 1.04 for Istogu, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Suhareka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Suhareka win

59.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Suhareka home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Istogu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Suhareka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Suhareka and 1.04 for Istogu, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Suhareka win59%

Draw22%

Istogu win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–19.9%
1–09.7%
2–09.6%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Suhareka

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kika · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mitrovica · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ramiz Sadiku · 2-2 (D)

Istogu

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vjosa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça'89 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferizaj · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liria Prizren · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina e Re · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga E Pare table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Prishtina e Re	12	8	1	3	9	25
2	Liria Prizren	10	7	2	1	10	23
3	Rilindja 1974	11	6	3	2	7	21
4	Trepça'89	11	5	5	1	6	20
5	Ferizaj	11	5	4	2	10	19
6	Dinamo Ferizaj	11	5	4	2	8	19
7	Vëllaznimi	12	5	2	5	-4	17
8	Suhareka	11	4	4	3	5	16
9	Istogu	11	5	1	5	-4	16
10	2 Korriku	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Vjosa	11	3	5	3	4	14
12	FC Besa Peja	11	3	3	5	-2	12
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	11	3	2	6	-10	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	12	1	6	5	-6	9
15	KF Lepenci	11	1	6	4	-6	9
16	Kika	11	1	6	4	-9	9
17	Tefik Canga	12	1	4	7	-8	7
18	Mitrovica	10	0	5	5	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Suhareka win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.