Suhareka vs KF Lepenci Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Suhareka and 0.85 for KF Lepenci, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Suhareka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Suhareka win

70.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.31 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Suhareka home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KF Lepenci away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Suhareka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Suhareka and 0.85 for KF Lepenci, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Suhareka win70%

Draw18%

KF Lepenci win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.3%
1–09.8%
2–19.6%
3–08.8%
1–18.3%

Recent form

Suhareka

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kika · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mitrovica · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ramiz Sadiku · 2-2 (D)

KF Lepenci

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tefik Canga · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilindja 1974 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kika · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga E Pare table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Liria Prizren	11	8	2	1	14	26
2	Prishtina e Re	12	8	1	3	9	25
3	Trepça'89	12	6	5	1	8	23
4	Rilindja 1974	12	6	3	3	5	21
5	Ferizaj	12	5	5	2	10	20
6	Dinamo Ferizaj	12	5	5	2	8	20
7	Suhareka	12	5	4	3	7	19
8	2 Korriku	12	5	3	4	2	18
9	Vëllaznimi	12	5	2	5	-4	17
10	Istogu	11	5	1	5	-4	16
11	Vjosa	12	3	6	3	4	15
12	FC Besa Peja	12	3	3	6	-4	12
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	12	3	2	7	-12	11
14	Kika	12	1	7	4	-9	10
15	Ramiz Sadiku	12	1	6	5	-6	9
16	KF Lepenci	12	1	6	5	-10	9
17	Tefik Canga	12	1	4	7	-8	7
18	Mitrovica	10	0	5	5	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Suhareka win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.