Thung Talay Luang Stadium · Referee T. Thongkorn · Analysis updated 14:21 UTC
Sukhothai FC vs Muang Loei United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.45 for Muang Loei United, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Sukhothai FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sukhothai FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Muang Loei United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sukhothai FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.45 for Muang Loei United, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Sukhothai FC
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Uthai Thani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Romklao United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rasi Salai United · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 2-1 (W)
Muang Loei United
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Kanchanaburi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Songkhla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.