· Analysis updated 11:42 UTC
Šumperk vs Bospor Bohumín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Šumperk and 2.93 for Bospor Bohumín, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Bospor Bohumín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bospor Bohumín win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Šumperk home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bospor Bohumín away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–27.8%
- 0–37.6%
- 1–46.0%
Recent form
Šumperk
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nový Jičín · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pustá Polom · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bílovec · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Břidličná · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bospor Bohumín · 1-3 (L)
Bospor Bohumín
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Frydek-Mistek B · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jiskra Rýmařov · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vratimov · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Šumperk · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kravare · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · Šumperk 1-3 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · Šumperk 3-6 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · Šumperk 2-2 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2024-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · Šumperk 1-1 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2023-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Šumperk 1-2 Bospor Bohumín (4. liga - Divizie F)
4. liga - Divizie F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Vratimov | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Kravare | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 4 | Hlučín | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Valašské Meziříčí | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Opava II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Stonava | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Zabreh | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Nový Jičín | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 11 | Frydek-Mistek B | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Šumperk | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Břidličná | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Bílovec | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | Frýdlant | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -30 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bospor Bohumín win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.