· Analysis updated 16:22 UTC
Šumperk vs Opava II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Šumperk and 2.20 for Opava II, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Opava II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Opava II win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Šumperk home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Opava II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Šumperk
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bílovec · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Břidličná · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bospor Bohumín · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zabreh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Opava II · 1-2 (L)
Opava II
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Valašské Meziříčí · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frydek-Mistek B · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jiskra Rýmařov · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Vratimov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Šumperk · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Šumperk 1-2 Opava II (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2026-03-22T14:00:00.000Z · Šumperk 0-0 Opava II (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2025-08-16T08:15:00.000Z · Šumperk 5-2 Opava II (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2024-05-04T14:30:00.000Z · Šumperk 2-1 Opava II (4. liga - Divizie F)
- 2023-10-01T08:15:00.000Z · Šumperk 0-1 Opava II (4. liga - Divizie F)
4. liga - Divizie F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Kravare | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Vratimov | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Hlučín | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Opava II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | Stonava | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Valašské Meziříčí | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 9 | Zabreh | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 10 | Nový Jičín | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Frydek-Mistek B | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Šumperk | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Břidličná | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Bílovec | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | Frýdlant | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -30 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Opava II win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.