Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium · Referee K. Umudlu · Analysis updated 09:46 UTC
Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sumqayıt and 2.15 for Neftchi Baku, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Neftchi Baku the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Neftchi Baku win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sumqayıt home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Neftchi Baku away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Neftchi Baku to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Sumqayıt and 2.15 for Neftchi Baku, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–26.9%
- 1–36.8%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Sumqayıt
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-3 (L)
Neftchi Baku
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Neftchi Baku win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.