Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sumqayıt and 1.61 for Qarabag, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Qarabag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Qarabag win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sumqayıt home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Qarabag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sumqayıt win26%

Draw25%

Qarabag win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.8%
0–110.9%
1–29.5%
0–28.8%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Sumqayıt

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-3 (L)

Qarabag

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Imisli FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Safa Baku · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zira · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Araz · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sumqayıt · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 0-1 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2026-05-22T15:30:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 3-4 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2025-11-21T15:00:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 2-4 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2025-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 1-0 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2025-05-04T14:00:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 0-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2025-03-03T15:30:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 0-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2024-12-16T15:00:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 0-5 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2024-10-06T16:00:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 0-1 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2024-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 1-0 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)
2024-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · Sumqayıt 0-2 Qarabag (Premyer Liqa)

Premyer Liqa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	5	1	0	13	16
3	Qarabag	6	5	1	0	7	16
4	Turan	7	4	2	1	3	14
5	Zira	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Şamaxı FK	7	2	4	1	2	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	1	2	3	-1	5
9	Qabala	7	1	1	5	-8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	1	1	5	-7	4
11	Safa Baku	7	1	0	6	-10	3
12	Araz	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Qarabag win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.