Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.48 expected goals for Sumqayıt and 2.03 for Sabah FA, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sabah FA win
74.2% probability
Expected goals
0.48 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sumqayıt home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sabah FA away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sabah FA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 8% / 18% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.48 goals for Sumqayıt and 2.03 for Sabah FA, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.8%
- 0–116.6%
- 0–311.4%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Sumqayıt
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kapaz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Şamaxı FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi Baku · 1-3 (L)
Sabah FA
- 2026-10-20T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qabala · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Praha · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi Baku · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Imisli FK · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premyer Liqa table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sabah FA win, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.