Sumsel United vs Bekasi City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sumsel United and 1.15 for Bekasi City, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Sumsel United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sumsel United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bekasi City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sumsel United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Sumsel United and 1.15 for Bekasi City, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sumsel United win43%

Draw26%

Bekasi City win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.9%
2–18.9%
0–18.8%
2–07.7%

Recent form

Sumsel United

2026-10-02T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Persiraja Banda Aceh · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSPS · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSGC Ciamis · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSMS Medan · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persekat · 3-1 (W)

Bekasi City

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSIS Semarang · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSMS Medan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persikad Depok FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persiku Kudus · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSPS · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persela Lamongan	4	4	0	0	10	12
2	Deltras	4	4	0	0	9	12
3	PSMS Medan	4	3	1	0	11	10
4	PSPS	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Persikad Depok FC	4	3	0	1	-1	9
6	Tornado Pekanbaru	4	2	2	0	3	8
7	RANS Nusantara	4	2	1	1	4	7
8	PSIS Semarang	3	2	1	0	2	7
9	Semen Padang	4	2	1	1	2	7
10	PSGC Ciamis	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Persipura Jayapura	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Persis Solo	4	1	1	2	3	4
13	Barito Putera	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Dejan	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sumsel United	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Bekasi City	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	Persiku Kudus	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Persiraja Banda Aceh	4	0	0	4	-4	0
19	Persiba Balikpapan	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	4	0	0	4	-22	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.