· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Sundby vs FC Midtjylland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sundby and 1.87 for FC Midtjylland, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives FC Midtjylland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Midtjylland win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sundby home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Midtjylland away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Midtjylland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 26% / 23% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Sundby and 1.87 for FC Midtjylland, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Sundby
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ishøj · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstebro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Helsingor · 1-2 (L)
FC Midtjylland
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brondby · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · Sundby 0-7 FC Midtjylland (DBU Pokalen)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Midtjylland win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.