· Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Sundby vs Hørsholm-Usserød Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sundby and 1.83 for Hørsholm-Usserød, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Hørsholm-Usserød the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hørsholm-Usserød win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sundby home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hørsholm-Usserød away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Sundby
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ishøj · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstebro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Helsingor · 1-2 (L)
Hørsholm-Usserød
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus Fremad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holbæk B&I · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Næsby · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brønshøj · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · Sundby 4-4 Hørsholm-Usserød (3. Division)
- 2026-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · Sundby 2-1 Hørsholm-Usserød (3. Division)
- 2025-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · Sundby 3-4 Hørsholm-Usserød (3. Division)
- 2024-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · Sundby 1-2 Hørsholm-Usserød (Denmark Series - Promotion Round)
- 2024-04-19T17:00:00.000Z · Sundby 3-2 Hørsholm-Usserød (Denmark Series - Promotion Round)
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 26 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Helsingor | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Næsby | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | ASA Aarhus | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | Ishøj | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 | Frem | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Sundby | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Holstebro | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 13 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hørsholm-Usserød win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.