· Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Sundby vs Vanløse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sundby and 1.45 for Vanløse, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Vanløse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sundby home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vanløse away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vanløse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Sundby and 1.45 for Vanløse, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Sundby
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ishøj · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanløse · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Frem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstebro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Helsingor · 1-2 (L)
Vanløse
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brønshøj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hørsholm-Usserød · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ishøj · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hillerød · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Vanløse | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Næsby | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Helsingor | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | ASA Aarhus | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Holstebro | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 13 |
| 8 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Sundby | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Frem | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Ishøj | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.