· Analysis updated 17:28 UTC
Sundby W vs Thy ThistedQ W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Sundby W and 1.64 for Thy ThistedQ W, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Sundby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sundby W win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sundby W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thy ThistedQ W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sundby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 19% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Sundby W and 1.64 for Thy ThistedQ W, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.6%
Recent form
Sundby W
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Naestved W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AaB W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Osterbro W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AaB W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naestved W · 1-1 (D)
Thy ThistedQ W
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naestved W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs B 93 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Osterbro W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AaB W · 6-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · Sundby W 6-3 Thy ThistedQ W (B-Liga Women)
- 2022-11-27T12:00:00.000Z · Sundby W 0-2 Thy ThistedQ W (Kvindeliga)
- 2022-09-25T11:00:00.000Z · Sundby W 0-2 Thy ThistedQ W (Kvindeliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sundby W win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.