Eppleton Colliery Welfare Ground · Analysis updated 20:25 UTC
Sunderland U21 vs Blackburn Rovers U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Sunderland U21 and 1.60 for Blackburn Rovers U21, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Sunderland U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sunderland U21 win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sunderland U21 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blackburn Rovers U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sunderland U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Sunderland U21 and 1.60 for Blackburn Rovers U21, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.9%
Recent form
Sunderland U21
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich City U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 5-1 (W)
Blackburn Rovers U21
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town U21 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-15T18:00:00.000Z · Sunderland U21 4-2 Blackburn Rovers U21 (Premier League Cup)
- 2024-04-28T12:00:00.000Z · Sunderland U21 4-0 Blackburn Rovers U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sunderland U21 win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.