Stadium of Light · Referee Michael Salisbury, England · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.60 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Fulham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fulham win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sunderland home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fulham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 21% / 25% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Sunderland and 1.60 for Fulham, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 74.1% | 75.0% | 1.33 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.10 | 45.2% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.00 | 23.8% | 24.2% | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.8% | 25.0% | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.73 | 53.7% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 47.4% | 47.4% | 2.11 | 0.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 52.6% | 52.6% | 1.90 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 4.33 | 21.5% | 21.2% | 4.72 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.91 | 46.5% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.8% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 76.2% | 75.8% | 1.32 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 79.4% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sunderland
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)
Fulham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fulham win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.