Sunderland vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.42 for Leeds, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Leeds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Leeds win

51.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sunderland home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leeds away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sunderland win22%

Draw27%

Leeds win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–115.0%
1–112.4%
0–210.7%
0–010.5%
1–28.8%

Recent form

Sunderland

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)

Leeds

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 3-6 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-1 Leeds (Premier League - Summer Series)
2026-03-03T19:30:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-0 Leeds (Premier League)
2025-12-28T14:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-1 Leeds (Premier League)
2025-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-2 Leeds (Championship)
2024-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 2-2 Leeds (Championship)
2024-04-09T19:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-0 Leeds (Championship)
2023-12-12T20:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-0 Leeds (Championship)
2018-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-1 Leeds (Championship)
2017-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-2 Leeds (Championship)
2015-01-04T13:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-0 Leeds (FA Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Leeds win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.