Sunderland vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.33 for Leeds, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Sunderland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sunderland win

46.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sunderland win47%

Draw24%

Leeds win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.3%
1–08.1%
1–27.2%
2–07.0%

Why the model likes this

Sunderland home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leeds away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Sunderland

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-4 (L)

Leeds

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-1 Leeds (Premier League - Summer Series)
2026-03-03T19:30:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-0 Leeds (Premier League)
2025-12-28T14:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-1 Leeds (Premier League)
2025-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-2 Leeds (Championship)
2024-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 2-2 Leeds (Championship)
2024-04-09T19:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-0 Leeds (Championship)
2023-12-12T20:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-0 Leeds (Championship)
2018-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-1 Leeds (Championship)
2017-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · Sunderland 0-2 Leeds (Championship)
2015-01-04T13:00:00.000Z · Sunderland 1-0 Leeds (FA Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.