· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Sunnersta vs Korsnäs Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.06 expected goals for Sunnersta and 0.65 for Korsnäs, a combined total of 4.71. That distribution gives Sunnersta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 92%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 92% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sunnersta win
92.1% probability
Expected goals
4.06 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sunnersta home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Korsnäs away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sunnersta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 92%, against 92% / 6% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.06 goals for Sunnersta and 0.65 for Korsnäs, a combined 4.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
8%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–010.2%
- 3–010.1%
- 5–08.3%
- 2–07.4%
- 4–16.6%
Recent form
Sunnersta
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skiljebo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Angby · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Täby · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Falu BS · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Viggbyholms IK · 2-0 (W)
Korsnäs
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Viggbyholms IK · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lidingö · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skiljebo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kungsängen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Angby · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 56 |
| 2 | Sunnersta | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 53 |
| 3 | Enskede | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Angby | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 51 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Täby | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 41 |
| 7 | Franke | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 34 |
| 8 | Gute | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 | Bollstanäs | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | Kungsängen | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Lidingö | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -25 | 23 |
| 12 | Viggbyholms IK | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -24 | 22 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 14 |
| 14 | Helges | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | -49 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sunnersta win, at 92.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 92% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.