· Analysis updated 09:20 UTC
Sunrise vs Al Merreikh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Sunrise and 0.77 for Al Merreikh, a combined total of 1.43. That distribution gives Al Merreikh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 17% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sunrise home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 28% / 38% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.66 goals for Sunrise and 0.77 for Al Merreikh, a combined 1.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 17% and both teams to score at 26%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–023.9%
- 0–118.5%
- 1–015.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Sunrise
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etincelles · 0-0 (D)
Al Merreikh
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs APR · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Gorilla | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Amagaju | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Gasogi United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 17%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.