Nyagatare Stadium · Analysis updated 01:41 UTC
Sunrise vs Gasogi United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sunrise and 0.40 for Gasogi United, a combined total of 1.33. That distribution gives Sunrise the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sunrise win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sunrise home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gasogi United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sunrise to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 37% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Sunrise and 0.40 for Gasogi United, a combined 1.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.6%
- 1–024.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–19.8%
Recent form
Sunrise
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gasogi United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Etincelles · 0-0 (D)
Gasogi United
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunrise · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mukura · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Mukura | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Gicumbi | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marines | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Sunrise | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Musanze | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Gasogi United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Police | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sunrise win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.