Sunshine Georgies vs Melbourne City II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sunshine Georgies and 1.85 for Melbourne City II, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Melbourne City II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Melbourne City II win

49.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sunshine Georgies home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Melbourne City II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sunshine Georgies win28%

Draw23%

Melbourne City II win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.5%
0–17.7%
0–27.2%
2–16.8%

Recent form

Sunshine Georgies

2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Melbourne · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Hume City · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Avondale · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-01T05:15:00.000Z · A vs Altona Magic · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Heidelberg United · 0-0 (D)

Melbourne City II

2026-08-29T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Gully · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Bentleigh Greens · 2-6 (L)
2026-08-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Melbourne · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Hume City · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · Sunshine Georgies 1-0 Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL)
2026-04-12T05:00:00.000Z · Sunshine Georgies 1-1 Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL)
2025-07-26T05:00:00.000Z · Sunshine Georgies 2-1 Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL 2)
2025-04-12T08:00:00.000Z · Sunshine Georgies 3-6 Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL 2)
2024-05-18T04:15:00.000Z · Sunshine Georgies 0-3 Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL 2)
2024-02-10T06:30:00.000Z · Sunshine Georgies 3-2 Melbourne City II (Victoria NPL 2)

Victoria NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	26	16	6	4	32	54
2	Preston Lions	26	15	6	5	22	51
3	Hume City	26	15	4	7	15	49
4	Avondale	26	15	2	9	31	47
5	South Melbourne	26	13	2	11	3	41
6	Heidelberg United	26	11	7	8	8	40
7	Sunshine Georgies	26	9	11	6	1	38
8	Dandenong City	26	10	7	9	4	37
9	St. Albans Saints	26	9	7	10	-7	34
10	Melbourne City II	26	8	6	12	0	30
11	Altona Magic	26	7	7	12	-14	28
12	Bentleigh Greens	26	6	6	14	-24	24
13	Green Gully	26	4	6	16	-29	18
14	Dandenong Thunder	26	4	3	19	-42	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Melbourne City II win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.