CEPSUM Stadium · Referee S. Noshinravani · Analysis updated 20:24 UTC
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.98 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Cavalry FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cavalry FC win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Supra du Quebec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cavalry FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cavalry FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.98 for Cavalry FC, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.6%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.9%
Recent form
Supra du Quebec
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-1 (L)
Cavalry FC
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | Forge | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 57 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | -2 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 35 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -24 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 27 | 2 | 8 | 17 | -29 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cavalry FC win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.