CEPSUM Stadium · Referee I. Jecanski · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.57 for Forge, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Forge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Forge win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Supra du Quebec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Forge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.57 for Forge, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 3.45 | 26.5% | 27.4% | 3.65 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 46.9% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.28 | 72.1% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.77 | 52.2% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 53.4% | 53.6% | 1.87 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 46.6% | 46.4% | 2.16 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.20 | 29.4% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.7% | 74.9% | 1.34 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.45 | 26.5% | 25.1% | 3.98 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Supra du Quebec
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-1 (L)
Forge
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs HFX Wanderers FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:10:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · Supra du Quebec 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · Supra du Quebec 0-1 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 53 |
| 2 | Forge | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 40 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 33 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -4 | 27 |
| 7 | York United | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -16 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 25 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Forge win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.