CEPSUM Stadium · Referee Y. Rudolf · Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.47 for Forge, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Forge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Supra du Quebec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Forge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Forge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.47 for Forge, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Supra du Quebec
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-1 (L)
Forge
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs HFX Wanderers FC · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:10:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · Supra du Quebec 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · Supra du Quebec 0-1 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Montreal | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Forge | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Supra du Quebec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 5 | Atlético Ottawa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Saint-Laurent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Cavalry FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Vancouver FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | York United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Pacific FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | Woodbridge Strikers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Langley United Sa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Calgary Blizzard SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.