· Analysis updated 23:51 UTC
Supra du Quebec vs York United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.55 for York United, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Supra du Quebec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Supra du Quebec win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Supra du Quebec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
York United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Supra du Quebec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.55 for York United, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Supra du Quebec
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 5-0 (W)
York United
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Forge | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 58 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 4 | Supra du Quebec | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 6 | York United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -23 | 30 |
| 7 | HFX Wanderers FC | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 28 | 2 | 9 | 17 | -29 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Supra du Quebec win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.