· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Sur vs Al-Shabab Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sur and 2.94 for Al-Shabab, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Al-Shabab the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Shabab win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 2.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sur home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Shabab away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Shabab to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 13% / 15% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Sur and 2.94 for Al-Shabab, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–26.7%
- 0–36.6%
- 1–45.9%
Recent form
Sur
- 2026-10-10T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Saham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Oman Club · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:20:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Seeb · 0-2 (L)
Al-Shabab
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oman Club · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sur · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-24T15:05:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Seeb · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Shabab win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.