· Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Sur vs Smail Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Sur and 2.05 for Smail, a combined total of 4.78. That distribution gives Sur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sur win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sur home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 18% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Sur and 2.05 for Smail, a combined 4.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 81%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–16.4%
- 3–26.0%
- 3–15.8%
- 1–24.8%
Recent form
Sur
- 2026-10-10T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Saham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Oman Club · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:20:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Seeb · 0-2 (L)
Smail
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sur win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.