· Analysis updated 10:10 UTC
Sur vs Sohar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sur and 1.20 for Sohar, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Sur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sur home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sohar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Sur and 1.20 for Sohar, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Sur
- 2026-10-10T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Saham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Oman Club · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:20:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Seeb · 0-2 (L)
Sohar
- 2026-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Musannah · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nahda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Seeb · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dhofar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.