Franklin Essed Stadion · Referee K. Williams · Analysis updated 18:13 UTC
Suriname vs Panama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Suriname and 1.14 for Panama, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Suriname the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Suriname home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Panama away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Suriname to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Suriname and 1.14 for Panama, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Suriname
- 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Guatemala · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Guatemala · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Martinique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Honduras · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolivia · 1-2 (L)
Panama
- 2026-10-05T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Ecuador · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T06:10:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs India · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs England · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Croatia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.