Stadion Surkhon · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Surkhon vs Nasaf Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Surkhon and 1.30 for Nasaf, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Nasaf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nasaf win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nasaf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nasaf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 24% / 29% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Surkhon and 1.30 for Nasaf, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–012.1%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–09.9%
Recent form
Surkhon
Nasaf
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 44 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 34 |
| 8 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | -33 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nasaf win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.