Stadion Schlottermilch · Analysis updated 12:26 UTC
Sursee vs Emmen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.01 expected goals for Sursee and 1.49 for Emmen, a combined total of 4.49. That distribution gives Sursee the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sursee win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
3.01 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sursee home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Emmen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sursee to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 16% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.01 goals for Sursee and 1.49 for Emmen, a combined 4.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 2–17.5%
- 4–15.7%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–25.6%
Recent form
Sursee
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cham II · 4-3 (W)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Malcantone · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 3-7 (L)
- 2025-05-23T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Ibach · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gambarogno - Contone · 0-1 (L)
Emmen
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Goldau · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Locarno · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brunnen · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lachen / Altendorf · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Buochs · 1-8 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga Interregional - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zug | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 49 | 66 |
| 2 | Locarno | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 54 |
| 3 | Buochs | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 27 | 54 |
| 4 | Sursee | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 50 |
| 5 | Gambarogno - Contone | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 47 |
| 6 | AC Malcantone | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 41 |
| 7 | Lachen / Altendorf | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | -2 | 40 |
| 8 | Emmenbrücke | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | -10 | 40 |
| 9 | Thalwil | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | -7 | 39 |
| 10 | Ibach | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Cham II | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 12 | Emmen | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -18 | 30 |
| 13 | Rothrist | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 29 |
| 14 | Brunnen | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -12 | 24 |
| 15 | Muri | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -30 | 23 |
| 16 | Goldau | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -30 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sursee win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.