Stadion Gradski · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Sutjeska vs Buducnost Podgorica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sutjeska and 0.79 for Buducnost Podgorica, a combined total of 1.94. That distribution gives Sutjeska the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.9% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sutjeska home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Buducnost Podgorica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sutjeska to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Sutjeska and 0.79 for Buducnost Podgorica, a combined 1.94 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–014.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–09.5%
Recent form
Sutjeska
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dečić · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tivat · 2-0 (W)
Buducnost Podgorica
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Mornar | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Dečić | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Petrovac | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Jezero | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.